2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

As a string of reports indicated a remarkably strong economy despite continuously climbing interest rates, the majority of the country’s business analysts now anticipate a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously projected.

Fifty-eight percent of the 48 economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) expect a recession to occur this year, which is the same percentage that predicted a downturn in their December poll. Nevertheless, just 25% believe a recession will have started by the end of March, which is barely half of the percentage who had this view in December.

On Monday, the results of a poll of business, trade, and academic economists were made public.

Thirty-five percent of the polled economists now anticipate a recession to start in the second quarter. Twenty-five percent believe it will begin in the third quarter of this year.

As the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times in an effort to halt growth and contain excessive inflation, analysts have been putting off their predictions of when a downturn will begin.

More than 500,000 new jobs were created by businesses in January, contributing to an unemployment rate of 3.4%, a record low since 1969.